ONE MONTH WORK, NINE MONTHS VACATION?

The Congressional Budget Office issued a sobering budget and economic report on August 24. Among other predictions, the CBO estimated that unemployment would remain above 8 percent until 2014. That’s more than two full years away. A major reason for the pessimistic forecast is that the CBO anticipates only modest economic growth.

And why is economic growth only expected to be modest? Republicans will tell you that too much taxation and too many regulations are the problem. Democrats will tell you that not enough government stimulus is the problem. Some economists will tell you that a financial crisis caused by too much debt—such as the current one—does not permit a quick rebound. The economic system has to go through a painful period of deleveraging; that is, debt reduction. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff are two such economists (This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, 2009).

The too-much-debt economists are probably in the ballpark. But their explanation might not be the whole story. A few months ago, Barack Obama his own self stumbled onto a fundamental problem. He noted that using an ATM meant you were not interacting with a real live bank teller. In other words, ATMs have substantially reduced the number of tellers need in the world.

Of course, the President’s observation was greeted with derision by his adversaries, and even many of his supporters snickered. But he did touch upon a serious obstacle to a full-employment economy: the rapidly changing nature of work. Over the centuries, technological change has in turn produced changes in the nature of work. Existing jobs and occupations have disappeared or been degraded. New jobs and occupations have evolved. The process has rarely been smooth. Change is messy.

The onset of the Information Age, brought about by the computer, has continued—indeed accelerated—this disruptive evolutionary process. The relative, and in some cases absolute, numbers of bank tellers, secretaries, administrative assistants, production line workers, and many other similar types of employees have contracted. New jobs and occupations are emerging, but slowly. In fact, national economies may be entering an environment in which full employment is not achievable. Put another way, the problem might not just be the lack of jobs but the lack of need for a fully employed workforce.

If, say, 100 workers and managers can, with computers and computerized machinery, produce enough food, clothes, housing, other necessities, and leisure goods for 1,000, 10,000, even 100,000 people, what then? Well, you respond, those thousand or whatever need money to buy the food, clothes, housing, other necessities, and leisure goods, so they have to work. But all the necessary work is being done. Is massive income redistribution the answer? Is rotating the 100 necessary worker and manager positions through the 1,000 total supported people the answer? Work a month and get nine off? Are we ready for that future?